China's PV Industry Transformation and Development Under the "15th Five-Year Plan"

The official release of the proposals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" marks that China's energy and power transformation has entered a new stage of quality restructuring. As a core pillar of the clean energy industry, the development path of the photovoltaic (PV) industry is highly aligned with the ten key tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for energy development. Driven by policy guidance, technological innovation, and scenario integration, the industry is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade from scale expansion to systematic integration and intelligent efficiency, jointly outlining a clear blueprint for building a strong energy nation.

I. Policy Navigation: Strategic Transformation from Scale-Oriented to Systematic Restructuring

China has established its leading position in the global PV industry. By the end of September 2025, the country's installed solar power capacity had reached 1.127 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%, accounting for 30.3% of the total installed power generation capacity, thus exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" target. This achievement has laid a solid foundation for the transformation during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Moreover, the plan's initiatives such as "accelerating the construction of a new energy system" and "promoting the peaking of carbon emissions in a steady and orderly manner" have further clarified the development direction of the PV industry.

The policy orientation has shown three core changes, which are highly consistent with the tasks of the plan:

1. Mandatory energy storage becomes a rigid standard: In March 2025, the Measures for the Administration of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects (Draft for Comments) stipulated that industrial and commercial projects with a transformer connection capacity exceeding 500 kilowatts (kW) must be equipped with energy storage facilities accounting for 15% to 20% of the installed capacity, with a duration of 2 hours. This is highly in line with the plan's requirements of "comprehensively improving the complementary and mutual support capabilities and safety resilience of the power system" and "vigorously developing new-type energy storage".

2. Distributed PV becomes a core growth driver: In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV in China reached 280 million kilowatts, accounting for 43% of the total installed PV capacity. The policy encourages the "full installation where possible" on newly-built factories and public buildings, which is the specific implementation of the plan's task of "developing distributed energy and building zero-carbon factories and parks". During the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period, relying on the construction of about 100 national-level zero-carbon parks, the application scenarios of distributed energy will be further expanded.

3. Continuous upgrading of technical standards: National standards such as energy consumption limits for polysilicon have been increasingly tightened, which is consistent with the transformation direction of the plan, i.e., "strengthening the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy" and "promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy consumption", thus helping the PV industry move towards higher efficiency and lower carbon emissions.

In addition, the plan's clear tasks such as "adhering to the coordinated development of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy" and "promoting the integration of source, grid, load, and storage" have driven the PV industry to shift from a single energy supplement to multi-energy synergy. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the construction of large-scale bases will be accelerated, such as the "wind-solar-storage" bases in the "Three Norths" regions (North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China), "wind-solar-hydro" bases in Southwest China, and "wind-solar-nuclear" bases in coastal areas. The PV industry will be deeply integrated with energy storage, computing power, green hydrogen, and other industries to achieve the coordinated development of local consumption and cross-regional transmission, ensuring that most of the newly added electricity demand is met by clean energy.

II. Technological Empowerment: Intelligent Integration Drives Industrial Quality and Efficiency Upgrading

With policy support, the PV industry takes technological innovation as its core driving force, which is in line with the "15th Five-Year Plan" requirements of "developing new-quality productive forces" and "fostering future industries", thus promoting profound changes in the industrial structure.

· Technological route iteration: N-type batteries have become the mainstream in the market. Among them, TOPCon modules occupy a dominant position due to their high conversion efficiency, while BC modules gain a premium in distributed scenarios due to their aesthetic appearance and high performance. These technological breakthroughs continuously improve the energy utilization efficiency of PV, providing support for the realization of the plan's goal of "continuously increasing the proportion of new energy supply".

· Breakthroughs in PV-storage integration: PV-storage integration is a key solution to the intermittency problem of PV power generation. Data shows that for distributed PV projects equipped with energy storage accounting for 20% of the capacity and with a duration of 2 hours, the power fluctuation range can be reduced by 75%, and the consumption rate can be increased to 91.2%, which is 18 percentage points higher than that of projects without energy storage. This model is accurately aligned with the plan's transformation direction of "shifting energy storage from mandatory allocation to demand-based allocation and from scale expansion to quality and efficiency priority". In the future, with the doubling of pumped storage installed capacity and the large-scale development of new-type energy storage, the consumption and regulation capabilities of PV power will be further enhanced.

· Diversification of application scenarios: The deep integration of the PV industry with the real economy is reflected in the diversified expansion of application scenarios. Segments such as building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), agrivoltaics, and rooftop PV are accelerating their implementation:

o An industrial park in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, has adopted a "PV + energy storage + microgrid" structure, reducing annual electricity costs by 8 million yuan and lowering carbon emission intensity by 32%;

o Lankao County, Henan Province, has built a shared energy storage power station through the "county-wide promotion" model, increasing the energy storage utilization rate from 45% to 78%.

These practices not only implement the plan's requirement of "improving the electrification level of end-use energy consumption" but also promote the energy consumption transformation in industries, construction, transportation, and other fields, helping to increase the electrification level of end-use energy consumption to more than 35% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

In terms of global layout and future technology exploration, Chinese PV enterprises are actively expanding into emerging markets such as India and Russia, responding to the plan's direction of "promoting international cooperation in the energy field". At the same time, the coordinated development of PV with future industries such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy is building a "second growth curve" for energy transformation, providing strong support for the plan's goal of "promoting hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy to become new economic growth drivers".

III. Dual Carbon Leadership: Dual Practice of Industrial Upgrading and Energy Security

The rapid development of the PV industry is a core measure for China to implement the dual carbon control system (total carbon emission control and carbon intensity control) specified in the "15th Five-Year Plan". As the "largest emitter" of carbon, the energy and power industry will see the consumption of coal and oil peak as scheduled during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, thanks to the large-scale application of clean energy such as PV. Data in 2024 showed that coal still accounted for 53.2% of China's energy consumption structure, while the substitution effect of new energy such as PV continued to be prominent. By the end of September 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and PV power had reached 1.707 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power to become the largest installed power source.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) predicts that by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in China will exceed 2 terawatts (TW). This target is strongly aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" goal of "achieving renewable energy consumption of more than 1.5 billion tons of standard coal by 2030". The continuous expansion of the PV industry will effectively reduce carbon emissions from energy combustion, helping to achieve the plan's objectives such as "implementing the dual control system of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity" and "entering the peak platform period of primary energy consumption by 2030".

At the same time, industrial upgrading has also consolidated the energy security barrier. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "upholding the bottom line of national energy security". The independent and controllable development of the PV industry and the extensive layout of distributed energy can effectively reduce the external dependence on oil and gas and improve the resilience of energy supply. In 2024, the newly added installed capacity of user-side energy storage in China reached 12.6 gigawatt-hours (GWh), a year-on-year increase of 230%, driving investment of over 80 billion yuan in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. This not only becomes a new engine for economic growth but also builds a diversified and coordinated energy supply system, providing solid support for building a strong energy nation.

From the "terawatt era" to "systematic integration", the transformation path of the PV industry is a vivid epitome of the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for energy. Driven by policies, technological innovation, and the dual carbon goals, the PV industry will continue to deepen its integration with the new power system, end-use energy scenarios, and future energy industries, injecting sustained impetus into China's transformation from an energy giant to an energy power and the timely achievement of the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.