On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement, making major adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic (PV) and battery products. This marks the PV industry's complete departure from the 13-year-long export tax rebate era, and the industry's development will officially shift from policy-driven to market-driven. The specific policies are as follows: Starting from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export tax rebate for PV products will be cancelled, covering 249 items including silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules; a transition period will be set for battery products, with the export tax rebate rate reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027 onwards.

I. Impact on the Battery Sector

The 9-month transition period provides battery enterprises with a buffer to adjust their pricing strategies and overseas layout. According to calculations by SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network), after the full implementation of the policy, battery enterprises are expected to reduce tax rebates by 1-2 billion yuan annually, corresponding to a decrease of 46-51 yuan in export profits per 210R battery. This will add insult to injury for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with already meager profit margins, putting them under enormous survival pressure. Some enterprises may be forced to suspend production or transform, while others may choose to accelerate exports during the transition period to seize the final tax rebate dividends.

In contrast, leading enterprises such as CATL and BYD can avoid policy restrictions through localized production relying on their improved overseas production capacity layout. Meanwhile, relying on strong technological strength and product premium capacity, they can transfer costs downstream by raising prices. This policy adjustment will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the battery industry, further increase the market share of leading enterprises, drive the industry to transform from low-price competition to high-quality development, and force enterprises to strengthen technological innovation and improve product added value.

II. Impact on the Inverter Sector

Core equipment such as inverters are not classified as "PV modules" or "battery" raw materials, so their export tax rebate policy is likely to remain unchanged, or the impact will be far less than that on the module segment, which constitutes a significant positive for inverter enterprises. However, indirect risks need to be guarded against: the increase in module export costs may cause overseas customers (EPC contractors or power station owners) to postpone or cancel projects due to price hikes, thereby indirectly reducing the demand for inverters and energy storage systems; at the same time, if overseas customers lower the purchase price of inverters to control the overall budget of power stations, it will squeeze the profits of inverter enterprises.

Leading inverter enterprises such as Sungrow Power Supply and Ginlong Technologies can improve added value and reduce cost pressure through technological innovation and product upgrades, relying on their strong technological strength, stable product quality and high market share. They can also avoid policy risks through improved overseas production capacity layout. SMEs, on the other hand, face fierce competition, with some forced to suspend production and transform, and others may choose to strengthen cooperation with module enterprises to jointly respond to market changes. Overall, the policy will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the inverter industry, promote the transformation of the industry to high-quality development, and further increase the market share of leading enterprises.

III. Impact on the PV Module Sector

According to SMM calculations, after the full implementation of the policy, PV module enterprises are expected to reduce tax rebates by 1-2 billion yuan annually, with a decrease of 46-51 yuan in export profits per 210R module. SMEs also face significant cost pressure. After the policy was released, overseas customers have urged order delivery one after another, and domestic enterprises have worked overtime to rush production and shipment. It is expected that an export peak will occur in March 2026, and related industries such as logistics and shipping will benefit from this short-term export surge.

Leading module enterprises such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar can avoid policy restrictions through their improved overseas production capacity layout, and transfer costs by raising prices with the help of technological advantages and premium capacity. This adjustment will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the module industry, increase the market share of leading enterprises, and drive the industry to focus on technological innovation and product added value improvement, breaking away from the low-price competition model.

IV. Overall Industry Trends

The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy has a far-reaching impact on various segments of the PV industry: the battery sector faces short-term shocks and transition period adjustments, the inverter sector ushered in direct policy dividends but needs to cope with indirect demand fluctuations, and the module sector bears cost pressure while experiencing a short-term export rush. In the long run, the policy will promote the entire industry to strengthen technological innovation, improve product added value, and accelerate the transformation from low-price competition to high-quality development; leading enterprises will further accelerate the layout of overseas production capacity to avoid export tax rebate restrictions and trade barriers, expand market share with their advantages, and drive the continuous improvement of industry concentration.